It’s pretty spot on. It takes years to get a fab up to speed, and they’ve been stealing US IP shipped over there for manufacturing for over a decade. They’ll try to annex Taiwan, and the US will be fucked. Jokes on them though, because TSMC has remote self destructive capabilities for their operations.
TSMC won’t destroy itself. If the US destroys TSMC on its way out, that will crush the global economy.
Man, I love how people give no agency to companies like this. Mainly because it shows they’re entirely ignorant of the state of the world outside of their very limited knowledge and incorrect beliefs about it.
China will not invade Taiwan. They might try to invade a country like the Philippines, almost crash the world economy but more than anything their own country in the process and realize Taiwan is completely out of reach.
China has terrible demographics, a real estate mark that is in free fall, high debt, is the target of tariffs in every major economy and a domestic market that can’t consume what they produce.
Economically they are fucked unless the US and EU throw them a life line and allow them to dump products in their market again… which is not going to happen no matter which party is in control. The best they can hope for at this point is a Japanese style lost decade. But I doubt they can manage even that outcome.
Bottom line is the CCP will do whatever is in the best interest of the CCP staying in control of China. Even if that decision is terrible for China itself.
If they are backed into a corner it doesn’t matter that Taiwan is out of reach. All that matters is that the CCP stays in control.
That is what makes this next ten years very dangerous.
China has their in-house Longson chip and can use Risc-v. This has the potential of accelerating a switch from x86/arm to more open standards.