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Cake day: June 5th, 2024

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  • You’d think that, but a depressingly large percent of middle managers identify more with the bosses than with the people doing real work. They believe that if they toe the line and work hard at enabling the sociopaths, they might eventually get the promised invisible handjob.

    Interestingly, I’ve known more senior managers than middle managers who are radical. I’m one, and I’ve known many others. I think that those who really understand how the system works end up advancing, but they’re also the ones with no illusions about how the sausage is made.

    Capitalism has made me moderately rich (and I started from near-destitution), but that doesn’t mean I am unaware of its many toxic side effects. You have to live within the system that exists. People who don’t know how to do anything make shitty revolutionaries and incompetent reformers.




  • The regime we have is made up of real capitalists, who behave as capitalists often have throughout history. The kind of capitalism that’s fake is the Chicago-school free maket kind, which has never existed in real life, because it embodies a contradiction in terms. The market is either “free” as in freedom from regulation, or it’s “free” in terms of no oligopolistic barriers to entry. It can’t be both simultaneously. Tuly free markets have a lifetime comparable to free hydrogen atoms: they quickly settle to an equilibrium state that’s less free (by either definition).















  • Physical simulations factor in a dozen or so weather conditions to predict outcomes.

    Many more parameters than that.

    Machine learning can track thousands of conditions

    Scientists already know which ones are relevant. You’re not going find any big surprises there with an AI. Shotgun-style factor analysis has already been done to death. The price of baked beans doesn’t impact the wind direction in the Persian Gulf. It’s OK to not consider it.

    drawing connections not realized in physical models

    Again, it’s possible but unlikely. And you’d need an AI that could be queried to tell you what factors it considered, and most of them don’t work that way right now.

    Statistical models don’t become more accurate because you throw irrelevant parameters at them. But that’s how ML systems work.