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Cake day: June 1st, 2023

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  • Elections are not run federally, they are run by each state which makes it harder for Republicans to be as aggressive as they’d like to be

    Mind you they lost a US house seat this cycle even with Trump winning. They have just a 3 seat majority. They would need a gain of +70 seats in the house in a midterm environment to get to 2/3

    On the senate side, Republicans would need to pick up 12(!) seats to get 2/3. In the 2026 map, that’s extraordinarily difficult and would require winning extremely deep blue seats. 66 senators is a lot. They would have to win literally every single senate seat up for election in 2026

    Assuming they win all the solid red + lean red seats, they would need to defend both senators in North Carolina and Maine to keep 53. Then they’d have to flip the tossups of Michigan and Georgia to get to 55. Then the lean blue Minnesota senate seat to get to 56.

    Then the very likely blue seats of New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire to get to 60. Then to get to 66, they would need to win the safe blue states of Oregon, Illinois, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island to get 66

    Midterms are usually very unfavorable to the party in power. Even with more stringent voter laws, that would be a tall ask. Flipping safe blue senate senates where dems have state and local control would be insane

    And you’d have to flip a large number of state legislature in deep blue states too




  • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.mltomemes@lemmy.worldDoing my part
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    2 days ago

    If you want something more hands on, work on local races this year. They are how we can fight back

    Elections are run at the state level in the US. Even for federal offices


    Many states have elections this year even despise it being an off year

    There are special elections today in Virginia thay will determine who controls the state legislature. If dems remain control, they can block a lot of the Republicans governors attempts to disenfranchise

    There are special elections in Minnesota on Jan 28th to determine control of one house of the state legislature

    There is an election that will determine control of the Wisconsin state supreme court on April 1st. The more recent Progressive control has lead to Wisconsin getting fair maps as the gerrymandered maps were overturned. We are going to want to keep it that way and build further

    There are special elections for various US house members like to replace Matt Gatez on April 1st. Should we win any suprise flips, it will be even harder for Republicans to get things through congresss with their already tight 3 seat majority

    And so on

    Here’s a frequently updated spreadsheet with various at home volunteering options

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M/htmlview

    EDIT: also on another note, consider running for election yourself. There are various small local positions around you that often go uncontested. Here’s one group that helps progressives run for local office https://runforsomething.net/